HOW WEAK WAS FIRST-QUARTER GROWTH?
Economists have reason to wonder given the latest retail sales, industrial output, and inflation figures. Overall retail purchases fell 0.3% in March, though they rose 0.2% minus auto buying; analysts polled by MarketWatch expected a 0.1% gain for the headline number and a 0.5% gain for the core number. Industrial production slipped 0.6% in March, matching the retreat in February. The Consumer Price Index rose only 0.1% last month while the Producer Price Index declined 0.1%.1
CONSUMERS A BIT LESS UPBEAT
The preliminary April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan came in at 89.7 last week, down from 91.0 at the end of March. A year ago, the index stood at 95.9.1,2
CHEAPEST MORTGAGES IN NEARLY 3 YEARS
Freddie Mac’s April 14 Primary Mortgage Market Survey found the average interest rate on a 30-year home loan at 3.58%, a low unseen since May 2013. You can credit demand for Treasuries; the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.65% earlier this month.3
STOCKS RISE IN FIRST WEEK OF EARNINGS SEASON
Across April 11-15, the S&P 500 gained 1.62% to a Friday settlement of 2,080.73. Greater weekly gains came for the Nasdaq and Dow; the former rose 1.80%, to 4,938.22, while the latter advanced 1.82%, to 17,897.46.4
THIS WEEK: Celanese, Hasbro, IBM, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, PepsiCo, Royal Caribbean Cruises, and W.W. Grainger all announce earnings Monday. Data on March housing starts and building permits appears Tuesday, plus earnings from Comerica, Discover, Goldman Sachs, Harley-Davidson, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Yahoo!, Northern Trust, Philip Morris, TD Ameritrade, and UnitedHealth. March existing home sales figures are out Wednesday, plus earnings from Abbott Labs, American Express, Citrix, Coca-Cola, CoreLogic, DISH Network, Mattel, Stryker, Newmont Mining, Qualcomm, Raymond James, U.S. Bancorp, United Rentals, and Yum! Brands. Thursday brings a new initial claims report, the latest Conference Board leading indicators, and earnings from Alaska Air, Alphabet, BoNY Mellon, BB&T, Biogen, Briggs & Stratton, D.R. Horton, General Motors, Hanesbrands, IMAX, Microsoft, E*Trade, Norfolk Southern, Nucor, PulteGroup, Schlumberger, Sherwin-Williams, Skechers, Snap-On, Southwest Airlines, Stanley Black & Decker, Starbucks, Travelers, Under Armour, Union Pacific, Verizon, and VISA. Friday’s earnings parade includes American Airlines, AutoNation, Caterpillar, GE, Honeywell, Kimberly-Clark, and McDonalds.
|% CHANGE||Y-T-D||1-YR CHG||5-YR AVG||10-YR AVG|
|REAL YIELD||4/15 RATE||1 YR AGO||5 YRS AGO||10 YRS AGO|
|10 YR TIPS||0.20%||0.07%||0.82%||2.48%|
Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 4/15/165,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
“It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.”
– Harry S. Truman
Think twice about canceling an old whole life insurance policy. If it has sufficient value, you may be able to convert it to a term policy at no charge.
It may contain a thousand wheels, yet it never moves despite spending all day in the sun. What is it?
Last week’s riddle:
Three women each have two daughters. They are all having dinner at a cafe. The café has but seven chairs. All the women are seated. How is this possible?
Last week’s answer:
The seven women eating are a grandmother, her two daughters, and her four granddaughters.
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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [4/15/16]
2 – sca.isr.umich.edu/ [4/15/16]
3 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-mortgages-freddie-mac-idUSKCN0XB2E0 [4/14/16]
4 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp [4/15/16]
5 – markets.wsj.com/us [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F15%2F15&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F15%2F15&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F15%2F15&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F15%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F15%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F15%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/16]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/15/16]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/15/16]